Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight organization has been following the state and national polls for quite some time now. (His emphasis is on the state polls.)
As you can see from the charts and numbers, according to the state polling average, (and as a reminder, these are statistics, not politics), things don’t look good for Mr. “I’ll lie through my clenched teeth to get this job!” Romney.
President Obama’s path back to the Oval Office has, at least according to the individual state numbers over many months, consistently shown him gathering well over the necessary 270 Electoral votes. Romney, on the other hand, has never achieved the magic number. Today it shows him getting only 225, and his chance of winning is 9%.
Yes, according to the polling numbers, Romney’s chance of winning is 9%. That’s just about the odds of an inside straight draw in poker. As Silver mentions, if you’re playing 5-Draw Poker and you hold a 4-5-7-8 in your hand, the chance of drawing a 6, (which is what you need to complete the straight), is 8%. In this case, the difference between 8% and 9% is statistically moot.
I can’t imagine anyone putting money on a poker bet that only had an 9% chance of winning, but hey, crazier things have happened.
Let’s put it in a slightly different perspective.
You’re in an airplane. The pilot passes out. Among all the passengers is a trained pilot and a circus clown. The trained pilot has a 91% probability of safely landing the plane. The clown has an 9% probability.
You get to make the choice, so who gets to land the plane? (If you choose the clown, I’m gonna’ sock you!)
Anyway, I can only hope Nate Silver’s Jethro Bodine ciphering is as good as it looks.
Otherwise?
The clown will soon be driving the airplane.
